Almond Oil Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Price Drivers, Latest News, Supply Demand Analysis & Market Insights

In the second quarter of 2025, prices for almond oil witnessed a slight decrease to a significant extent due to the California almond crop season. With crop conditions being healthy and covering a large area, market participants witnessed a consistent stream of raw almonds, which maintained a constant supply over the quarter. The initial part of the harvest forecast led to modest price stability. Trade operations were nonetheless marginally affected by the imposition of tariffs on major export markets. Since a large percentage of California almonds were for export, the imposition of tariffs created a climate of apprehension among overseas consumers. This led to restrained procurement, especially in price-sensitive markets. Locally, demand from the food and cosmetic sectors remained at an even rate, ensuring a level consumption rate regardless of the challenges outside.

Speculation regarding possible changes in production levels and trade interruptions caused trading volumes and buying decisions to fluctuate. Strong domestic availability, however, ensured that supply pressures were maintained at bay, resulting in range-bound movements with a downward bias during the quarter.

During the first quarter of 2025, almond oil prices resembled the oscillating price patterns in international almond markets. The almond sector was being driven by a combination of multiple factors like, oversupply pressures, redirection of trade, and inventory shelf life, etc., all of which pressured prices in both raw almonds and processed oil.

Early in the quarter, India saw a surge of American almond imports primarily because the US- China trade tensions diverted the shipments. This put bearish pressure on almond kernel prices as importers rushed to clear old inventory. Well-timed strategic stock-holding by large traders and a spike in container arrivals also further fueled this price correction phase, causing short-term weakness in the upstream almond segment.

Consequently, almond oil manufacturers were subject to mixed cost signals. The short-term relaxation of almond kernel prices in early Q1 provided some respite in raw material sourcing. Overall, a range –bound market outlook was observed for almond oil during the first quarter of 2025.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, in the near term, shifts in international shipping patterns or tightening supplies from the major origins might be factors influencing almond oil prices. Downstream demand might also influence direction of prices if sourcing becomes tighter.

In 2024, the price trend of almond oil was significantly influenced by fluctuations in raw almond prices, which demonstrated varied behavior throughout the year. In the first half, almond prices remained largely range-bound due to inconsistent export performance and subdued global demand.

Although yields declined in major producing countries like Spain and growers faced financial strain from persistently low prices, market conditions overall reflected a subdued price environment. Despite the softness in raw almond prices, the cost of almond oil production remained relatively stable during the early months of 2024.

In the second half of the year, the arrival of the new almond crop led to a short-term decline in raw almond prices amid increasing supply. However, this downward trend was brief, as demand particularly from India during its wedding and festival seasons picked up, putting upward pressure on prices.

A rise in domestic consumption, coupled with reduced imports, further constrained supply and fostered a more optimistic pricing environment for almonds and, in turn, for almond oil. Downstream sectors such as food, cosmetics, and wellness continued to accommodate the price shifts, driven by sustained consumer interest in plant-based and nutrient-rich products.

Throughout the latter half of 2023, the almond oil market closely mirrored price patterns in the raw almond sector, particularly in the United States. In the third quarter, almond prices declined notably due to substantial carryover inventories from earlier harvests, which exerted consistent downward pressure as the new crop season approached.

Suppliers, eager to clear older stock before the fresh harvest, further contributed to prolonged weakness in pricing. This downward trend extended to the almond oil market, where lower input costs were observed. However, producers remained hesitant to reduce output volumes, given ongoing market uncertainty. As a result, almond oil prices followed a subdued trajectory during the early part of the period.

In contrast, the final quarter saw a shift in dynamics. Changes in shipping volumes and logistical challenges, driven by geopolitical tensions in key maritime routes, contributed to a rise in raw almond prices. This tightening in supply began to influence almond oil prices progressively, especially as buyers looked to replenish inventories ahead of year-end demand.

During this phase, almond oil prices gradually increased. Although the period began with weak fundamentals, improving shipping activity and rising raw material costs supported a more active trading environment by the close of the year.

Almond Oil is directly sourced from almonds through cold press extraction or oil milling processes. So, any fluctuations in almond markets are also mirrored in the Almond Oil markets.

During the first half of the year 2023, the Almond Oil prices were observed to be inclining for the majority of the period. The unseasonal weather changes in America, leading to drought and constricted water supplies, were the biggest detrimental factor for almond yields.

Initially, the demands from downstream cooking, health care, personal care, and pharma sectors were regular; however, with increasing inflation and Almond Oil prices, the demands also took a hit. However, the prices majorly wavered at the higher end of the price spectrum for most of the discussed period because of the limited supplies. Overall, positive market sentiments were observed for Almond Oil during the said period.