Almonds Price Trend Analysis 2026: Price Drivers, Supply Demand Analysis, Latest News, Market Insights & Historical Prices

Almond prices were found to be range-bound for the most part of H1'24 in the global markets. Spain's almond exports showed mixed performance in early 2024. While February saw a strong rise in exports compared to the previous year, March saw a slight decline. Overall, total exports for the year have showcased borderline stagnancy.

Exports to France and Portugal increased slightly, while shipments to Germany and Turkey dropped by approximately 8% and 26%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 2024 crop estimate for Spain is projected at 130,000 metric tons, boosted by favorable conditions, though the 2023 crop was revised down due to drought, with some producers reporting as low as 80,000 metric tons. Despite lower production and high demand, almond prices are considered too low to cover production costs, causing financial strain for farmers. Overall, not much enthusiasm was found in the almonds market during the first half of 2024.

Almond prices were observed to be riding along a muddled trajectory throughout the second half of the year 2023. In the US market, quarter three’s performance was significantly poorer than that of quarter four. As the large ending stocks weighed on the markets just before the harvest season, according to some estimates, the prices even fell to a 20-year low in August.

The suppliers’ rush for stock clearance before the arrival of new stocks pushed the price graph down. However, this situation started reversing in September as the prices then started to climb back up as the demands started rising again, especially from the international markets. A strong shipping performance pushed the price trend up again, which was further fuelled by the shipping disturbances in the Red Sea. The fourth quarter witnessed a consistent surge in almond prices as the prices hit an eight-month high in December.

The prices of Californian Almonds shot up by 10% in the said period as the rupee depreciated drastically against the US dollar. To meet the rising demands for the upcoming festivities, the Indian government looked for cheap imports from Syria and Afghanistan.

In the USA, amid the labour shortages and truckers’ strike, the product flow through the Oakland port was disrupted causing logistical issues. Hence, the price trend for almonds soared dramatically globally during the said period.

Asia

Due to the delays in the shipment from California, India is looking for new contracts to meet its increased demands during the upcoming festive months. In contrast, the almond price trend in China on the lower side as a result of low market sentiments because of the Chinese New Year. However, the buyers are returning to the market but with limited buying capacity. Hence, prices are rising steadily as compared to any sharp increase.

North America

With over 96% of California experiencing drought-like conditions, the almond farming sector is immensely compromised. Its repercussions can be felt far and wide in the international market. Due to the increased shipping challenges and the labour shortage, California almond prices saw an upward trend. The average price of Californian almonds varies between 5.88 USD/kg and 6.02 USD/kg.

North America

Following record rainfall in California and a rise in the rate of shipments, worldwide almond prices fell in the first week of January. These two positive factors most likely contributed to the price drop. In December, California saw a lot of rain and snow, with the most of it falling in the last two weeks of the year. For March, almond prices were recorded at 1.99 USD/lb.

Asia

In the final quarter of 2021, almond harvest in Australia had been completed after a slow start due to heavy rains in the region. The shelling and hulling results show that the crop yields for 2021 were better than those of the previous year in terms of kernel and quality. The Australian Dollar was growing stronger and the global prices were low. New plantings had also been reduced.

The California market for the commodity was strong and the Covid-19 pandemic had caused major disruptions but in spite of that the exports were very high, being close to 80000 metric tonnes. The harvests in the southern and northern hemisphere were being consumed simultaneously which caused a market overlap. The domestic consumption had risen by 7% during the lockdown period.

Europe

The production was impacted in both Europe and America. Europe experienced more imports from United States and Australia. The production region is in Spain which produces more than half of the total produce in Europe even though most of the area is rainfed. The consumption in Europe had increased and inventories depleted.

North America

Drought issues still continued to affect the almond market in the US. The navel orange worms also were the major concerns in the final quarter of 2021. The demand for the commodity had increased. Crop receipts had been slow, almond prices were low, and dwindling stocks in Europe were bullish factors in the almond market. Along with this, there were other challenges like shipment problems and water supply issues.

Asia

China imported great quantities of almond as a result of the increasing demand from manufacturers in the food industry. Average almond prices in China in the first three quarters in 2021 was 3420 USD/MT. The imports in India also increased by nearly 20 percent, close to 130,000 tonnes. In the first quarter of 2021, almond prices in India were 3370 USD/MT.

The production in Australia rose by 14%, close to 145,000 tons. The major production regions in Australia are Sunraysia and Riverina, where the major water supply comes from the Murray River. Exports from Australia increased by 20% close to 900,000 tonnes amid high demands from Europe and China. In the first quarter of 2021, average almond prices in Australia were 4610 USD/MT.

Europe

In Spain and Italy, the production was down by 15%, close to 124,000 tons as the yields were cut due to frost. The imports were also lower than expected as consumption was low. Average almond prices in the first three quarters of 2021 in Spain was as low as 3040 USD/MT.

North America

The major concerns for almond producers in the US have been drought and insect damage. In the third quarter, the sellers in the US were cautious to sell their supplies due to anticipated droughts in future, which caused price hikes in the region. Almond prices rose from 3340 USD/MT in the first quarter to 4450 USD/MT in the third quarter of 2021. Other major challenges were shipping difficulties and delays in shipments.

Asia

China and India have been the major importers and key growth drivers in the almonds industry. The consumption had dropped during the pandemic but later picked up as the lockdown was lifted and the economies expanded. Their demand rose along with the increasing supply. Australia had seen a significant rise in the almond production and acreage in 2020 with the total production being 111,000 tonnes.

The major exports are sent to China and Hong Kong, after being grown mostly in the Murray-darling Basin region. The region however faces challenges such as limited availability of water resources. Australia is one of the chief competitors of California grown almonds in the international market. Their average price in Australia in 2020 was 3705 USD/MT.

Europe

Western Europe witnessed limited growth in almond production and export. The major importers of the commodity in Western Europe are Spain and Germany. Spain had earlier been a major exporter and producer but its production dropped due to less domestic demand.

Nonetheless, the market in Europe grew due to the rising demand for almond milk. The average price in Spain in 2020 was 4175 USD/MT. Almond prices fell in the first quarter due to the covid-19 pandemic but recovered by the end of the year 2020 as lockdowns were lifted.

North America

California is a largest producer of almonds in the US and one of the dominant players in the global market. In the recent decades, California’s almond industry witnessed major growth from a production of 2.8 billion pounds in the year 2020.

In 2020, the prices in California dropped to 1.83 USD/lb due to the numerous factors such as the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic which reduced the demand and consumption of almonds and the US-China trade dispute.

Gradually, the prices rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. They have mostly been stable in spite of the increased expansion in supply in both domestic and international markets.