Aluminium (Cash) Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Market Insights, Price Drivers, Supply Demand Analysis & Latest News

In the second half of 2024, Aluminium (Cash) prices showed a mixed and volatile trend across major regions due to changing supply levels, weak downstream demand, and global economic signals. In the third quarter, prices initially declined as higher production in China increased supply in the market, while demand from processing industries such as construction and manufacturing remained weak. Many downstream companies operated at low capacity due to fewer orders, which put pressure on prices. However, lower inventories and expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States improved market sentiment toward the end of the quarter, leading to a gradual price recovery.

In the fourth quarter, prices continued to fluctuate. In Asia, demand remained uneven, and policy changes related to export rebates created uncertainty in the market. Despite weaker demand in some areas, falling inventories and stable production supported prices. In Europe, reduced production in previous years and limited supply from certain regions helped keep the market firm, while demand from automotive and renewable energy sectors provided support. In North America, cautious trading and global supply shifts influenced price movement, with trade tensions and logistics costs shaping market conditions.

In Q2 2024, Aluminium (Cash) experienced a notable decline, driven primarily by weakened demand prospects in China amidst slowing economic growth, rising inventories, and underwhelming lending figures. China's economic growth slowed to 4.7% in the second quarter, the lowest since early 2023, falling short of expectations and highlighting subdued demand. Despite this, China's primary aluminum production surged to a record high, with June's output reaching 3.67 million metric tons, a 6.2% year-on-year increase, as producers ramped up operations to capitalize on higher profit margins.

This increase was supported by additional capacity in Inner Mongolia and the resumption of production in Yunnan, powered by ample hydropower supply. The market saw a technical trend of long liquidation, with a 2.5% drop in open interest as prices dipped, and LME aluminum prices also continued their downward trend in the quarter-ending days. Meanwhile, the SHFE aluminum prices also saw declines, reflecting the broader market challenges. Overall, the aluminum market in Q2 was marked by a complex interplay of increased supply and weaker demand, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

During the initial phase first quarter of 2024, the global Aluminium (Cash) market depicted weak sentiments. This stagnation in the market was largely influenced by the economic slowdown in China, particularly in its property and construction sectors, and broader economic deceleration in the major economies worldwide.

Despite various measures by the Chinese government to stabilize the property market, its impact on the price of Aluminium (Cash) was yet to be observed in the early phase. Additionally, at the end of the year 2023, the surplus of carryover stocks exerted downward pressure on the prices. However, in China, the traders noted an increase in demand from the solar, electric vehicles, and transmission infrastructure sectors, although it was only efficient in driving the demand momentum of the commodity in the later half.

Meanwhile, the Western nations continued to avoid Russian Aluminium (Cash), representing about 6% of global production, further adding to the existing uncertainties. However, as the quarter progressed towards its end, the limited production of this commodity in China due to power outrage in Inner Mongolia reduced the supply-demand gap and supported a slight uptrend in the price trend of Aluminium (Cash). On the demand side, post-Lantern Festival, recovery in downstream consumption suggested a potential strong outlook for Aluminium (Cash) prices in the near future.