Aluminium Scrap Price Trend Analysis 2026: Supply Demand Analysis, Latest News, Historical Prices, Price Drivers & Market Insights

Aluminium scrap prices in the third quarter of 2025 moved within a narrow range, shaped by policy discussions, trade flows, and shifting regional demand patterns. Market sentiment in Europe remained cautious as debates continued over potential export levies to curb the outflow of scrap metal. Domestic recyclers faced tighter feedstock availability due to increasing shipments toward Asian markets, particularly India, where buyers remained active amid favourable pricing and fewer legal environmental constraints.

The imbalance between export activity and local consumption drew attention from aluminium producers and packaging manufacturers across Europe. Industry representatives highlighted that persistent scrap outflows limited access to recycled aluminium, a critical input for low-carbon packaging. Despite substantial investments in recycling furnaces and upgrades, a portion of European capacity stayed idle, attributed to insufficient feedstock retention. Calls from industry bodies for export duties gained momentum through the quarter, as stakeholders sought measures to maintain supply security.

Throughout the quarter, domestic demand from automotive and construction sectors remained muted, while packaging applications continued to anchor consumption. Price adjustments were limited as stable primary aluminium values and consistent secondary demand maintained equilibrium. Overall, trade dynamics and policy uncertainty shaped market behaviour more than significant cost fluctuations.

During Q2 2025, the world aluminium scrap market witnessed price fluctuations due to constrained supply conditions and changing demand. In India, prices of aluminium scrap were on an upward trend, led mainly by a narrowing supply of raw materials. The trend was noticed as global supply chains grappled with the limited supply of major scrap grades, including Tense and Extrusion, resulting in higher prices in the domestic market.

Simultaneously, Indian consumers found US import prices less competitive on account of high expenses and were, therefore, searching for alternative sources of supply, like the Middle East. Though there were some US scrap grades which were still at a premium in the domestic market, Indian consumers were shifting towards supplies from countries where the price of aluminium scrap was low. The Middle East market was particularly strong, with export prices remaining stable, which helped drive the overall price hike in India.

Another significant market driver in Q2 was the ongoing imposition of a duty on imports of aluminium scrap into India. This policy, which imposed a 2.5 percent duty on aluminium scrap and withdrew duties on other metal scraps, impacted local recycling and put further pressure on prices. Indian recyclers had higher operating costs than their counterparts in nations like Malaysia and Thailand, where there was no duty imposed.

Market sentiment was characterized by cautious optimism, with demand remaining firm, especially in major sectors such as automotive and building. Nevertheless, the tight supply situation and high cost of imports dampened the optimism, prompting many of the buyers to move fast in order to secure available stocks.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, aluminium scrap prices are likely to continue fluctuating based on shifts in global supply chains and policy changes in major aluminium-producing regions. The impact of ongoing trade tensions and tariff adjustments may further influence market dynamics.

During the first quarter of 2025, the global aluminium scrap market faced some disruptions because of changes in trade policies and increased demand from downstream industries. The U.S. imposed tariffs on primary aluminium but exempted scrap aluminium, creating a surge in demand for European scrap by American companies, particularly from Germany. The anticipated effect was the increase in European exports, which would raise alarm about domestic supply shortages. German business associations cautioned that ongoing outflows would destabilize local recycling networks and compromise raw material security for producers.

Aluminium scrap availability in the region narrowed, pushing prices upward as recyclers increasingly struggled to source feedstock. EU export tariffs have become a more serious topic of discussion as industry leaders call for regulatory action to safeguard local supply and sustainability targets.

Meanwhile, in Asia, the scrap trade flows shifted as China reduced imports from Malaysia and increased sourcing from Thailand due to more stringent regulations and higher prices. Southeast Asia, being a transit point, was also witnessing increasing demand coupled with tightening supplies. Regional markets were indirectly influenced by U.S. purchasing patterns, resulting in global price firmness and increased competition for high-grade scrap.

The Aluminium scrap market experienced significant downward pressure during the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily driven by volatile LME prices and shifting market dynamics. Prices for major grades like Zorba and Taint Tabor showed consistent weakness throughout the quarter, with values declining steadily from their mid-year peaks.

A notable drop in semi-finished exports from India significantly impacted the demand-supply balance, while increased imports of cheaper Aluminium alloyed ingots further pressured scrap prices. The automotive sector, traditionally a strong consumer of secondary Aluminium, demonstrated cautious buying behavior, leading to reduced demand for grades like ADC12.

In the US market, despite improved Aluminium demand in North America, scrap generation remained subdued compared to previous years. Secondary producers reported softer market conditions than the previous year, with increased competition for available material. The export markets showed weakness, particularly in traditional buying regions, which added to the downward price pressure.

The availability of certain grades remained tight, particularly for rolling mill scrap, though this tightness did not translate into higher prices due to overall market sentiment. Extrusion scrap prices fluctuated throughout the quarter, reflecting inconsistent demand patterns. The pricing for prime grades faced particular pressure due to increased competition among buyers and volatile primary Aluminium prices.

Consumer destocking activities continued to influence the market, with many buyers maintaining minimal inventory levels due to economic uncertainty. This cautious approach contributed to reduced spot market activities and declining price trends across most grades.

During the third quarter of 2024, aluminium scrap prices in India experienced a downward trend, influenced by stable London Metal Exchange (LME) prices and broader market uncertainties. Prices for all grades of aluminium scrap dropped week-on-week, driven by a combination of factors, including steady three-month LME aluminium prices, which remained within a narrow range. This price stability on the LME, coupled with relatively high stock levels in LME-registered warehouses, contributed to subdued aluminium scrap prices that hovered near three-month lows.

The European holiday season further added to market sluggishness, creating a bid-offer disparity that impacted scrap imports into India. Specifically, prices for aluminium scrap from the UAE and the UK saw declines, with notable reductions in the prices of Tense and Zorba grades.

Additionally, India’s aluminium scrap imports declined significantly during the first half of 2024, which further contributed to price weakness. In contrast, there was a marked increase in imports of alloyed aluminium ingots, indicating a shift in the material supply landscape. Domestically, aluminium scrap prices followed a similar downward trajectory, with tense scrap prices in majority of the Indian cities reflecting the broader market trend and LME price movements.

The outlook for the remainder of the quarter remained uncertain, as the market grappled with LME price stability, ongoing holidays, and subdued demand. However, there was cautious anticipation surrounding the August alloys price settlement, which could potentially impact the direction of scrap prices in the latter part of the quarter. Market participants remained cautious, closely monitoring developments that could influence both scrap and alloy prices moving forward.

In Q2 2024, aluminium scrap prices in Europe remained elevated, driven by tight supply and robust demand, particularly from Asian markets. European aluminium alloy producers encountered significant challenges in sourcing sufficient scrap feedstock, as strong international demand from countries like China and India continued to divert substantial volumes of scrap away from Europe. Compounding these issues, lower scrap generation within the region was noted, primarily due to reduced industrial activity and a sluggish construction sector.

Additionally, the increased utilization of aluminium scrap by primary metal producers - spurred by advancements in processing technology and a commitment to greener production methods further constrained the availability of scrap for secondary alloy producers. This confluence of factors led to rising scrap prices throughout the quarter, despite relatively stable alloy prices, which in turn squeezed profit margins for alloy manufacturers. The seasonal summer slowdown in Europe, characterized by plant and yard closures for maintenance, exacerbated the scarcity of scrap, intensifying competition among buyers eager to secure limited supplies. As a result, the market dynamics in Q2 2024 reflected a complex landscape where rising prices underscored the challenges faced by European producers amidst strong global demand and constrained local supply.

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During the second quarter of 2024, the aluminium scrap market experienced notable fluctuations, influenced by varying factors in both domestic and international contexts. Throughout this period, the aluminium scrap market in India showed sluggish movement, with buyers adopting a cautious approach due to a minor decline in LME aluminium prices. This price dip was partly due to the relaxation in imported raw material consignments, which kept imported aluminium scrap prices relatively low and stable.

Market activity remained subdued, leading sellers to lower their offers in an effort to liquidate materials. This trend was further exacerbated by sluggish trade activities and a lack of significant upward fluctuations in the imported aluminium scrap market. Also, in the domestic market, prices of ADC12 alloy ingot, also experienced a decline as well.

This was reflected in the widening scrap-to-alloy price spread, indicating a growing disparity between raw scrap and processed alloy prices. The inventory levels of aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses surged significantly, reaching their highest levels since January 2022. This increase in inventory levels contributed to the downward pressure on prices, as higher stock levels typically signal an oversupply in the market.

Additionally, India's economic conditions played a role in shaping the aluminium scrap market. Consumer price inflation showed signs of moderation, primarily due to persistent food inflation, which influenced overall market sentiment. This easing of inflation rates, while positive for consumers, did not significantly stimulate purchasing activity in the aluminium scrap market, where buyers remained cautious amid the fluctuating prices and market conditions.

Stay updated with the latest Aluminium Scrap prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis

The aluminium scrap market exhibited mixed price trends throughout the second half of the year 2023. However, surprisingly, the aluminium scrap market performed better than the metal aluminium market. The scrap prices, though, started on a lower note at the beginning of the said period in July, impressively improving steadily for the next few months.

Though the movements in prices were very marginal and confined, the overall market sentiments were relatively positive in the gloomy times of global trade. At first, the monthly average prices in the European market went from around 1190 USD/MT (FOB) in July’23 to about 1130 USD/MT in August’23, showcasing a sudden decline of about 5%. However, the prices started to slowly incline after that and finished at about 1164 USD/MT in December’23, registering a 3% incline from August.

In the first quarter of 2023, the demand for aluminium scrap declined by almost 4 percent as compared to the previous quarters in the US and Canadian markets. However, the market conditions were still stable as compared to the previous quarters due to the increased interest of utility companies and the government in the electrical grid systems. In addition to this, the rates of exports to international buyers also inclined several folds while the import rates declined significantly, providing the falling market dynamics of aluminium scrap a cushion.

The situation in European countries was also the same as seen in the US and Canada. The main cause of fluctuations in the prices of aluminum scrap in this region was the low inflow of the product. The backlog of new orders placed continued to hamper the growth of the aluminium scrap price trend in the first two quarters of 2023. Further, the consumer sector in the region also seemed under the pressure of poor performance of the economy, rising interest rates, and soaring costs of energy production, which eventually led to a fall in the index of consumer purchasing potential.