Cardboard Price Trend Analysis 2026: Market Insights, Historical Prices, Supply Demand Analysis, Latest News & Price Drivers

In the fourth quarter of 2024, cardboard prices experienced an upward trend globally. As feedstock materials are crucial for the production of cardboard boxes, any fluctuations in their prices directly impact production costs. The surge in prices this quarter was primarily driven by the higher cost of key feedstocks, particularly pulp. The reduced availability of pulp, due to stricter environmental regulations, caused disruptions in the supply chains of the pulp and paper industries, driving up the prices of most downstream products, including cardboard.

The rising cost of cardboard had a notable impact on downstream industries, especially the packaging sector. The growing demand for cardboard from the packaging industry, fueled by the expanding e-commerce sector, boosted market confidence and contributed to the gradual increase in prices, which was sustained throughout the year and into this quarter.

Overall, the prices of cardboard saw a significant increase in the fourth quarter of 2024, influenced by the rising costs of feedstocks, disruptions in supply chains, and strong demand from the packaging industry.

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In the third quarter of 2024, cardboard prices experienced an upward trend globally. In the Indian market, the average prices rose from around 754 USD/MT (FOB) in July to about 763 USD/MT (FOB) in August. The primary driver behind this increase was the higher cost of feedstocks, particularly pulp. The reduced availability of pulp, due to stricter environmental regulations, led to disruptions in the pulp and paper industries’ supply chains, driving up the prices of many downstream products, including cardboard.

The rising cost of cardboard had a significant impact on downstream industries, particularly the packaging sector. Increased demand from the booming e-commerce industry bolstered market confidence and contributed to the steady rise in cardboard prices throughout the quarter. This trend was sustained throughout the third quarter of 2024, influenced by elevated feedstock costs, supply chain disruptions, and strong demand from the packaging sector.

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Cardboard prices built on the momentum they got in the first quarter and continued their northward run in the second quarter of the year 2024 as well. In the Indian cardboard market prices started the second quarter at an average of about 724 USD/MT (FOB) in April’24 and increasingly went on to approximately 744 USD/MT (FOB) in June’24. The domestic market saw a rapid rise in downstream consumption of cardboard, especially from the shipping and packaging industries, aided by the booming quick commerce and e-commerce sectors in the country.

This rise in demand led to an increase in the import of cardboard and its raw materials as well. This was primarily because of the low import duty on paper and paperboard products. Because of this, the domestic capacity utilization never reached its full potential. A supply crunch in the international markets also pushed the prices up. American manufacturers were rapidly buying the wastepaper and board materials, and on the other hand, the European mills were already operating at sub-optimal levels. Conclusively, the supply and demand dynamics were positive for cardboard prices for the entire duration of Q2'24.

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In the Indian market, sustaining the momentum of the previous quarter, the prices of cardboard rose from an average of 690 USD/MT to 717 USD/MT during the first quarter of 2024. The traders reported that although the demand for the commodity was more or less the same, the market registered this incline based on the cost of production.

During the first quarter of 2024, the cardboard industry witnessed a significant price correction attributed to the soaring costs of raw materials, transportation, and other essential inputs. This adjustment was prompted by substantial increases in prices of hardwood pulp and wastepaper, necessitating price hike circulars from major players such as JK Paper, APP, Bindal Papers, and Khanna Paper.

Factors such as the continuous rise in raw material costs, particularly hardwood pulp, witnessing a 25% increase, and a 15% surge in recovered paper costs drove this price trend. The paper and pulp giants during the first quarter thus were forced to increase their price quotations in order to sustain in the market. Not only India but China also reported a similar trend in the market, with players prioritizing their margins.