Air Freight Price Trend Analysis 2026: Price Drivers, Historical Prices, Latest News, Market Insights & Supply Demand Analysis

In the second half of 2023, air freight prices experienced considerable volatility across global markets. Early in the period, rates spiked due to strong demand from e-commerce exports, particularly from China, and limited cargo space on key trade routes. Carriers faced high fuel and labor costs, which added pressure on shipping rates. At the same time, supply chains were still recovering from earlier disruptions, and ports in some regions experienced congestion, further tightening capacity and pushing prices higher.

As the months progressed, demand from some industrial sectors softened, partly due to weaker economic activity in major regions like the U.S. and Europe. Businesses reduced inventory purchases, and overall international trade slowed, which led to a gradual easing of freight rates. Despite the high costs, carriers continued to maintain service levels, and companies increasingly sought innovative solutions such as combined sea-air transport to balance cost and transit time.

Toward the end of the period, air freight prices stabilized, with carriers and shippers adjusting to market conditions. Seasonal shipping patterns, including peak holiday demand, temporarily supported rates, but overall, the market showed signs of moderation.

This year, growth in global merchandise exports is anticipated to decelerate slightly. The weak demand posed to be a problem for the air cargo sector. As a result, the demand for air cargo in the first two quarters of 2023 remained below that observed in the same period of 2022. The decline in demand for air freight and global trade is majorly caused by inflation. The rising cost of raw materials and services influenced the air freight industry as it caused a reduction in purchasing power and lower rates of consumption. As a result, in the first and second quarters of 2023, the air cargo sector remained weak and faced seasonal swings, given the economic difficulties.

Air freight for commodity transport had a lukewarm run in H2 2022. The air freight market considerably downsized compared to the same time in the previous year. But the operational costs and price trend remained on a high ride throughout the H2 2022.

In the Asian market, strict zero covid policies in China in the middle of the year proved detrimental to the air freight market. Very strict norms and restrictions on movement strangled it and the industrial shutdown choked it further. Reduction in business operations resulted in an overall reduced need for commodity transfer.

For Europe the worst economic nightmare since the great depression was unveiled in the form of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. A major war in the backyard cost money, and energy security got severely hampered, as all Russian supplies were immediately seized.

The sanctions imposed on Russia in turn unfolded an energy crisis that Europe didn’t prepare for, resulting in skyrocketed energy prices. As fuel prices went up the operation costs for aviation too went up. Eventually leading to an inclined air freight price trend in Europe.

The global economic situation did influence America too. Even though the USA is secured with energy, refining capacity was still affected resulting in increased jet crack spread (difference between crude oil and jet oil prices). Overall costs were high with decreased demand. Air freight price trend remained high rising.

The demand for air freight is generally governed by cost; air freight and air cargo prices are usually 5 times the road shipment and10-12 times the sea cargo. Sanctions related to economic activity, surging crude oil prices, and current geopolitical uncertainties took a toll on air freight prices.

Disruptions in the Chinese market owing to zero-tolerance covid protocol and the avoidance of Russian airspace by many countries spiked the air freight prices on China-Europe routes. Despite these bottlenecks, the price trend for air freight remained strong. Air freight prices increased by 11.7% compared to 2019 levels and around 4% compared to 2021 levels.